56% Disapprove Karen Bass. She Still Leads L.A. Race
A new Berkeley-L.A. Times poll shows Karen Bass leading a weak field while voters still hammer her over the Palisades fire mess. #California
Los Angeles voters just delivered one of those poll results that practically writes its own punchline. Mayor Karen Bass is leading the 2026 reelection field with 25 percent support. She is also sitting on a 56 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters. So yes, she is in first place. She is also very clearly not loved. That is what happens when the field is weak, the city is frustrated, and the political establishment keeps trying to glide past a disaster people have not forgotten.
According to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, Bass leads City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 25 percent to 17 percent, while reality TV personality Spencer Pratt sits in third at 14 percent. About a quarter of voters remain undecided. That is the headline number. The more revealing one is the favorability split: only 31 percent view Bass favorably, while 56 percent view her unfavorably.
In plain English: a lot of Angelenos are looking for an alternative. They just have not settled on which one yet.
A lead that feels more like a warning
The Los Angeles Times quoted political professor Dan Schnur calling the poll “borderline catastrophic” for Bass. Hard to argue with that. When you are the incumbent mayor of America's second-largest city, facing a field that even local analysts describe as underpowered, you are not supposed to be limping along at 25 percent while most voters view you negatively.
“That she's having this much trouble against this field, against such a little-known field of opponents, bodes very, very poorly for her.”
That quote matters because it gets to the heart of this race. Bass is not dominating. She is surviving. For now.
Why voters are still punishing Bass
The biggest shadow over Bass is still the Palisades fire and the fallout that followed. The 2025 blaze killed 12 people and destroyed thousands of homes and structures. More than a year later, the issue is still hanging around her neck like an anvil.
Reporting from the Los Angeles Times said two sources with knowledge of Bass' office alleged that she wanted key findings in the after-action report softened or removed because they could expose the city to legal liability. Those findings dealt in part with the city's failure to fully staff up and pre-deploy engines ahead of dangerous winds.
Bass' office denied that she ordered the edits and blasted the Times report as “muckraking journalism at its lowest form.” That denial is part of the story too, and readers should know it. But the political damage is obvious either way. Once voters think a report was polished to protect city hall after a deadly disaster, trust tends to evaporate.
Bass leads the field with 25 percent support
Fifty-six percent of likely voters view her unfavorably
A quarter of voters remain undecided
The fire report controversy is still shaping how voters see her
Those numbers roast the situation without much help from us.
Spencer Pratt in third says plenty about L.A. politics
Then there is the Spencer Pratt factor. Yes, that Spencer Pratt. The Hills alumnus pulling 14 percent in a major-city mayoral poll is not just a quirky side note. It is a sign of how unserious and unsettled the field looks to voters. When a reality TV figure is already breathing down the neck of an incumbent mayor in a top-two primary system, something in the political order is wobbling.
You can laugh at that if you want. A lot of voters are not laughing. They are using whatever options they see to register disgust with the people already running the place.
What the runoff math looks like
If no candidate clears 50 percent in the June 2 primary, the top two head to a November runoff. That means the real fight may not be whether Bass reaches the second round. It is who meets her there. Raman has the establishment progressive lane. Pratt is feeding off outsider energy and frustration. With a quarter of voters still undecided, this race is not settled.
And that is where it gets interesting. Bass still has institutional advantages, donor networks, and name recognition. But incumbent strength usually looks stronger than this. A 56 percent unfavorable rating is not a small bruise. It is a flashing red light.
What conservatives should notice
This is a California city story, but the lesson is bigger. Voters will tolerate a lot from local government until incompetence collides with catastrophe. Then the mask slips. The same political class that talks endlessly about equity, resilience, and public service still has to answer for basic competence. Did you prepare? Did you tell the truth? Did you protect people? Those questions are undefeated.
No, this race is not about President Trump. It is about local accountability. But the broader conservative point still holds: government that grows fat and self-protective almost always becomes more interested in managing the narrative than telling the public the truth. Los Angeles voters appear to have noticed.
Bass may still win. Weak opponents can do that for you. But if you are leading with 25 percent support while most voters disapprove of you, that is not a mandate. That is borrowed time.